HOW HAVING MORE DATA MAY INCREASE ERROR

HOW HAVING MORE DATA MAY INCREASE ERROR

In his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb [NNT] argues that it is better to start with ‘real life’ and then read books than to start with books and try and apply to ‘real life’.

His point being that if we start with a theory and then go looking for an example to fit our model we end up finding something that fits our pre-conceptions. Taking the opposite approach should mean we come up with an explanation for something that is true in ‘real life’.

I found his book clever, difficult, inspiring and rude but never dull.

He is scathing of people who create models and spreadsheets that predict next month, next year, or next decade when we know that its difficult to predict the weather tomorrow. Take for example financial predictions.

Did you know that 50% of the price volatility in the markets is down to 10 days over the last 50 years. Can any of us predict the market behaviour for every-day for 50 years in the knowledge that miss just those 10 ‘special days’ and you’ll be out by 50%. Here is another thought: Did you know that for many banks all the cumulative gains of 50 years were lost in 1 week of trading.

Nobody 3 years ago would have predicted how the Brexit saga would have turned out. Indeed its difficult to predict next week let alone next month, next year, or next decade.

NNT notes that having more data confirms confidence, but not fact.

In his book Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know about the People We Don't Know Malcolm Gladwell notes many instances where computers get facts right based on very little data (example offender record, age, offence) whereas people get it wrong ostensibly because of too much data (they look innocent, they dress well, they speak with an accent).

Faced with all that extra data we are bound to find something to justify our notion. Again, more data confirms confidence, but not fact.

In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman explains both the merit in quick thinking and the risk. This simple categorisation based on past experience, values, beliefs means we suffer “confirmation bias” – looking for things to confirm assumptions rather than go through the hard work of fresh and independent thought (potentially challenging or changing our experience, values, beliefs)

So, what are we to do if too much data confirms confidence, but not truth. And hasty thinking leads to false assumptions?

All this came to me today in a practical situation about risk. Looking at GDPR and Cyber Security there is a real risk that we suffer analysis paralysis: lots of data confirming how scared we should be, which ostensibly comes from the people who earn a living from these risks. Warren Buffet is alleged to have said “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut”.

We need to understand the context and maybe NNT is right. Maybe we need to start with ‘real life’ and then look at data rather than become too obsessed with what the spreadsheet or check-list says and be blind to the reality and practicality of it all.

As a guy who is data-driven and more about process than personality this is a new way of thinking for me. Like I said, NNT’s book was interesting because it challenged me and my assumptions. But when you put it in the context of all the other literature it seems clear: too much data blinds us.


FEEDBACK

I am interested in your thoughts and experiences. Maybe you agree. Maybe you do not. Maybe you can recommend some other books, blogs or videos. Do not hesitate to get in touch, and if you are in Jersey I will happily buy you a coffee if you would like to talk about your experience.

SOME LINKS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable
https://www.amazon.com/Talking-Strangers-Should-about-People-ebook/dp/B07NDKVWZW
https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/B000VXBVN6/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=black+swan&qid=1569264880&s=digital-text&sr=1-1
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-and-Slow/dp/B005Z9GAJG/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=thinking+fast+and+slow&qid=1569264938&s=audible&sr=1-1

AUTHOR

@TimHJRogers +447797762051
https://www.linkedin.com/in/timhjrogers/
http://www.timhjrogers.com
MBA (Management Consulting) Projects & Change Practitioner,
TEDx & Jersey Policy Forum, Public Accounts Committee,

TWO STORIES ABOUT MEETINGS. ONE IS TOO LONG AND DON’T ACHIEVE MUCH

John has been told by one of his team, Harry that Harry and the others spend 10 hours of their 40 hour week in meetings. John doesn’t know what is being discussed in the meetings or why they take so long.

John is curious: Do they say the same thing in every meeting (which suggest the team need someone to constantly repeat the same message before anything gets done.)

Or maybe they say a different thing in every meeting (which suggest that everything is changing all the time and people are confused and always debating and discussing the future rather than implementing it.)

What needs to change? Is the problem the meetings, attendance, agenda or participation?

Sam always circulates a report of key facts and figures, proposals, plans and price at least 3 days before any meeting so everyone has a chance to read and think about what needs to be discussed in the meeting. The agendas are clear and the minutes record only what was agreed and the key actions.

If someone wants to add something to the agenda they need to let Sam know in advance, otherwise it is rolled into the next meeting. The other thing Sam is careful to do is ensure at each meeting people have completed their tasks from the previous meeting. Sam is quick to thank people for doing good work, but not reluctant to say when someone has failed to do what was agreed.

Sam is also firm about the agenda and the time. If someone rambles on they simply cut it short, get them to explain their idea in writing and schedule it for discussion at a future meeting when the idea is clear and people have had the time to read and think about it.

Is the structure likely to make these meetings more or less productive?

I am a fan of short stories because they are easier to follow than theory and if it is too long you won’t read and won’t remember. If you would like to share your ideas or experience get in contact and I’ll buy you a coffee.

Tim Rogers

07797762051

A STORY ABOUT IMPROVING ENGAGEMENT AND PERFORMANCE

Charlie is tasked with improving the performance of his team and given a set of KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) as a guide to what must be improved. The problem is that Charlie doesn’t know the current score, how often they are assessed or what the target score should be.

The other problem is that his colleagues don’t know what these measures are or how their processes or behaviours effects the scores or their rewards and recognition at the end of the year.

Is Charlie likely to be a KPI – Key Person of Influence?




Sam has agreed the KPIs with his team who are all keen to show what they can do, month by month, in Jan, Feb, Mar to December to improve their scores. They have also agreed a really simple and objective way to measure what is important (and not waste time measuring things they cannot control or don’t matter). They publish these scores and take 15minutes each month to review what went well and what didn’t and what they might do for next month.

Is Sam likely to be able to learn from successes and failures, in Jan, Feb, Mar to Dec leading to overall improvement?




I am a fan of short stories because they are easier to follow than theory and if it is too long you won’t read and won’t remember. If you would like to share your ideas or experience get in contact and I’ll buy you a coffee.

Tim Rogers
07797762051

Building a Cathedral on Sand

I work for many clients on many projects for many years. Once I was engaged to do a project rescue. I asked an IT supplier to justify their bills or evidence for the work invoiced.

The reply from their CEO was “Don’t try building a Cathedral on Sand”. Their argument was that governance and paperwork was bureaucracy and not a good foundation for their solution.

I thought this was a brilliant title for a book, and told them so. Below are the headings for each Chapter. Do you think I should write the book?

1. We need something
2. Poor specification
3. Big promises
4. Loose contract
5. Weak Management
6. Vague deliverables
7. T&M but no deliverables
8. Inaccurate Reporting
9. Escalating invoices
10. Product Problems
11. Management Issues
12. Better tomorrow
13. A bit more time…and cash
14. Emperor’s New Clothes, or Boy who cried wolf
15. Brought to account
16. Recriminations
17. Reprisals

It’s an interesting admission: That your product is “a Cathedral on Sand”.

Anyone else had a similar experience?

Six Questions which predict Team Success and set your agenda for 2019.

I have worked with a lot of clients in 2018, which has been great. I really value the short, interesting and productive engagements as much as the longer projects that deliver outputs, outcomes and overall improvements for people and the business.

One of the shorter but interesting facilitation engagements was to ask a team the following six questions and get their ideas for how to make the answer YES for each.

1.  I know what is expected of me at work
2.  I have the materials and equipment I need to do my job right
3.  I have the opportunity to do what I do best every-day
4.  In the last 7 days I have received recognition or praise for doing good work
5.  Someone at work encourages my development
6.  At work, my opinions count

The key themes (in this example, which may not be representative for other organisations) included...

• People understand the role of management in co-ordination, communication and collaboration but don't value micro-management of tasks.
• People don't like chaos. There is a strong preference for predictable environments, managed workflow, consistent decisions and priorities and time to focus and get things right.
• People don't mind being measured (eg timesheets, objectives, KPIs, successes) if they are clear about the objective, benefits and have the freedom to decide "how" they do their work.
• People often know the best free tools, techniques and methods to do their job faster, cheaper and better. A lot of time, money, effort is wasted with indecision and interruption which compromise the outcomes.
• People value being valued and that isn't always about remuneration. Sometimes it is thanks, appreciation, training, or simply being recognised as having achieved objectives, KPIs, successes etc.

What is so great is that people want the answer to be YES and given the freedom to suggest ideas will work hard to come up with solutions that make the work place a better, more fun and productive place to work.

My book for the year has been The Phoenix Project

The Phoenix Project: A Novel about IT, DevOps, and Helping Your Business Win6 Feb 2018
by Gene Kim and Kevin Behr

I loved this book because the story was so real to so many projects that I have managed. The people, problems, technologies are typical as are the outputs, outcomes and frustrations. What has been great is realising that these are real-life issues with practical real-life solutions that can be applied.

As a troubleshooter often involved in project rescue it is always great to have insights from other people's experience that you can apply to your own circumstances.

I like this book so much that I am prepared to buy a copy for anyone who works with me and whats to understand what we can achieve together.

What book would you recommend to me?

The books that might help you in 2019, and your recommendations?

A BIT OF MENTAL STIMULATION

At the end of 2017 I stopped competitive sport and sought a new outlet. Having pushed my body to its limits I am now stretching my mind and am very grateful to a few good people who have suggested some wonderful books.

This blog is part an acknowledgement and thank you to the people who have really made an impact on me either directly or for the recommendations they have made.

I am therefore sharing a list of what I've read and why, just in case people have similar interests and would like to read the same books. It is also a great opportunity to canvas recommendations.

It is true that my physical fitness is not what is was when I was 30 or even 40, but there is no reason that my mind shouldn't go from strength to strength and I am grateful for any ideas that may improve me or my business in 2019.

READING LIST

This is a small subset, I think I may have read 50 books. I have attempted to put them in the order I would recommend with the best at the top of each list. I greatly value people's recommendations in the comments.

IMPROVING PROCESS AND SYSYEMS THINKING

The Phoenix Project, A Novel about IT, DevOps, and Helping Your Business Win 5th Anniversary Edition, By: Gene Kim, Kevin Behr, George Spafford

The Goal, A Process of Ongoing Improvement - 30th Anniversary Edition, By: Eliyahu M. Goldratt, Jeff Cox

Critical Chain,Project Management and the Theory of Constraints By: Eliyahu M. Goldratt

The DevOps Handbook, How to Create World-Class Agility, Reliability, and Security in Technology Organizations

The Toyota Way to Lean Leadership, Achieving and Sustaining Excellence Through Leadership Development

Thinking in Systems A Primer By: Donella H. Meadows

UNDERSTANDING POLITICS AND SOCIAL CHANGE

The Cold War, A World History, By: Odd Arne Westad

The Great Economists, How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today,By: Linda Yueh

Misbehaving, The Making of Behavioral Economics, By: Richard Thaler

Red Notice, By: Bill Browder

A History of Russia: From Peter the Great to Gorbachev, By: Mark Steinberg, The Great Courses

Willful Blindness, Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril, By: Margaret Heffernan

The Secret Barrister By: The Secret Barrister

Inside Story: Politics, Intrigue and Treachery from Thatcher to Brexit

MANAGING A BUSINESS

The 12 Week Year, Get More Done in 12 Weeks Than Others Do in 12 Months, By: Brian P. Moran, Michael Lennington

The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck, A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life By: Mark Manson

Key Person of Influence, The Five-Step Method to Become One of the Most Highly Valued and Highly Paid People in Your Industry

Summary of Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths By: Instaread

UNSURE WHICH CATAGORY

Bad Blood By: John Carreyrou

Conspiracy, Peter Thiel, Hulk Hogan, Gawker, and the Anatomy of Intrigue, By: Ryan Holiday

Hitch-22, A Memoir, By: Christopher Hitchens

Sapiens and Homo Deus: A Brief History of Humankind and A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari

THANKS

I would like to thank Tom Hacquoil for a number of books: Zappos, The New New, When Breath Becomes Air, and a bundle of books on cryptocurrency

I would like to thank Jane Frankland for her book INsecurity

I am also mighty impressed by my Commonwealth Games Team Manager, Gary Jones who has published Evidence Based School Leadership and Management. Although written for schools the idea of doing anything based on data is a good idea!

I am also grateful to Gailina Lieu for the work of the Jersey Policy Forum and some great books: The Road to Somehere and Utopia for Realists. This opened a really interesting trail which included Andrew Keene's book How to Fix the Future and another breath taking look into the future with Life 3.0.

FOR 2019

I greatly value people's recommendations in the comments and am curious if there is a book club in Jersey for either Business Topics or Social Change.